I recently read a Gene Marks article for The Guardian in which he discusses the potential for an economic slowdown in 2019. Like most things written by Marks, I agree with his assessment for the most part as he begins his article stating that, “Regardless of all the predictions, no one really knows for sure.”
If you hate President Trump and his administration’s policies, there is plenty of evidence to make you feel that vindication is coming in 2019. If you are a supporter of the Trump administration, then you too can argue in favor of his decisions with evidence to support your claims as well. But whatever side you’re on, so far, in terms of small business, Trump is doing a pretty good job.
Taxes are down, regulation decreased, the economy is strong, and small business loans are easier to get now than in the past decade. Due to this unemployment is down as well, causing an increase in wages and expenses, but an understandable trade-off.
On a global scale, international “trade has slowed, reflecting both tariff disputes with the US and an overall drop in demand. Oil prices are declining, mostly due to the effects of the trade slowdown. Financial markets have wiped out their gains for 2018, which could cause a pullback in consumer confidence and spending in the new year. Builder and small business confidence have recently fallen and our national debt, budget deficits and interest rates are rising. All of these factors are reasons why nearly half (48.6%) of US CFOs believe that the country will be in recession by the end of 2019, and 82% believe that a recession will have begun by the end of 2020, according to a new Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook study.“
It’s too early to say how 2019 will go in particularly considering so much is changing this year from a new majority in the House of Representatives, new chief of staff for President Trump, and continued rising interest rates.
The economy is strong today, but expect slower growth to hit the economy sometime this year.