A new CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey found that a slim majority of small business owners in the U.S. expect a recession in 2020. The survey was conducted between January 28 and February 4, 2019 and included more than 2,200 small business owners. The findings also reveal a decline in the percentage of small business owners who described business conditions as good in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the third and fourth quarter of 2018.
Small business confidence dropped from 62 in the third quarter of 2018 to 58 in the first quarter of 2019. In a January 2019 CNBC Fed Survey, strategists, fund managers and economists placed “the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 26 percent. In yet another January 2019 survey of SurveyMonkey involving 10,000 Americans, 63 percent of the respondents said they believe that a recession is likely in the next year.
The CNBC/SurveyMonkey data also show significant differences in small business owner sentiments based on gender and political affiliation. More women think a recession is coming compared to men, while more Democrats say a recession is likely compared to Republicans. Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian has expressed concern about recession talks, stating that“for the U.S. to get into a recession, the rest of the world has got to really slow down dramatically.” El-Arian also noted that business investment is increasing, wages are going up, government spending is increasing and the labor market is strong.